Today represents the biggest test of public opinion in Britain since the 2005 General Election.
All eyes will be on Scotland where the race between the SNP and Labour to be the largest party is looking increasingly tight. politicalbetting.com has a helpful summary of the final polls of the campaign. The two lastest polls tell very different stories
Constituency vote
Labour SNP Lib Dems Tories
Yougov 31% 37% 14% 13%
ICM 32% 34% 16% 13%
Constituency vote
Labour SNP Lib Dems Tories
Yougov 27% 32% 10% 13%
ICM 29% 30% 16% 13%
in the comments over at pb.com, Stuart Dickson points us to some helpful data on declaration times. The first council declarations are expected around midnight. Declarations from the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections are expected to begin around 1am.
Key figures to remember:
65 – Number of MSPs needed to provide an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament. Neither Labour or the SNP are likely to reach this on their own, but the results will dictate likely coalition options.
31 – Numbers of Assembly Members needed for an overall majority in the Welsh Assembly. In the last Assembly labour ran a minority government with 29 votes. If it loses more seats, it may be forced to return to coalition with the Liberal Democrats. It’s also conceivable that there could be a rainbow coalition of Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems and the Tories, who between them also had 29 votes in the last Assembly.
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