A Westminster election: The Scottish factor

With the prospect of an autumn election firming up all the time, one issue Gordon Brown has to consider is the impact of the SNP resurgence in Scotland.

Ruaridh Nicoll argues that this factor has been over-estimated:

while it’s true that an early election would cause
Alexander difficulties, it could do Scottish Labour good. Like the
Tories, they need something to focus on. And the truth is that, in
difficult times, they would not do too badly, and certainly not as
badly as everyone seems to fear.

‘We know that in votes for the
Scottish and UK parliaments, people vote very differently,’ says James
Mitchell, professor of politics at Strathclyde University. Sometimes,
in the same poll, nearly a quarter of votes shift when people are asked
about their desires for representation in Westminster or Holyrood. (Observer)

Alex Salmond is nevertheless talking up the SNP’s chances:

Speaking on The Politics Show on BBC Scotland
yesterday, Mr Salmond said he believed the Prime Minister would call an
autumn election and that he was sure the SNP would do well.

He said: "I’m certain the SNP would make an advance and I think that would be a good thing for Scotland." (Herald)

Can they both be right? Well consider the figures quoted in the Herald article:

Recent polls put the SNP on 35% on a Westminster ballot, with Labour on 40%.

The Conservatives are on 11% and the Liberal Democrats on 9%.

Put those numbers into Martin Baxter’s Scottish election calculator and you get a very interesting result:

Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 15.83% 1 11.00% 0
LAB 39.54% 41 40.00% 41
LIB 22.64% 11 9.00% 0
NAT 17.67% 6 35.00% 18

This prediction suggests that the SNP would treble their seats, even though Labour would hold all theirs while the Lib Dems and the Conservatives would be wiped out. Labour really would be the party of the union then.

The detailed table below shows that Labour would actually lose Ochil and South Perthshire to the SNP, but would gain Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale from the Tories. All of the Lib Dem seats would fall to the SNP, including those of Menzies Campbell and Charles Kennedy.

The prospect of another Scottish Tory wipe-out is clearly plausible given that they are defending a single marginal seat. While I find it hard to believe that the Lib Dem result would be anything like this bad in practice, the polls do show a sustained swing from them to the SNP, that has only accelerated since the Holyrood election. Their best hope may lie in their usual campaign bounce combined with the Westminster factor favouring UK-wide parties.

As an aside, inputting either version of the Holyrood results into Baxter produces SNP gains from Labour as well as the LibDems. However, since that was a P.R. election, the Westminster opinion polls are probably more relevant.

On that basis, the message is clear. Labour could lose a couple of seats or gain a few, but as far as Gordon Brown’s election decision is concerned, the Scottish polls are not a deal-breaker. For the SNP, an autumn election may be a historic opportunity to emerge as the second largest Scottish contingent at Westminster.

The Conservatives and the Lib Dems have most to worry about. While the Tories are more likely to be wiped out completely, the Lib Dems have more to fear in terms of the impact on their overall UK result.

    
Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
Seat MP at 2005
Electorate Turn
out %
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
NAT
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2005
Win
Pred
Win
8 537 Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Tom Clarke 67,385 56.90 5.03 64.72 4.77 22.44 0.00 3.04 LAB LAB
12 533 Glasgow South West Ian Davidson 62,005 49.96 4.01 60.43 4.61 23.56 5.38 2.01 LAB LAB
14 531 Glasgow East David Marshall 64,130 48.24 4.79 60.91 4.71 25.70 0.00 3.88 LAB LAB
23 522 Glasgow North East Michael Martin 62,042 45.80 0.00 53.32 0.00 17.66 14.20 14.81 LAB LAB
29 516 Airdrie and Shotts Dr John Reid 61,955 53.52 6.85 59.26 4.55 25.83 0.00 3.51 LAB LAB
34 511 Motherwell and Wishaw Frank Roy 66,987 55.40 6.44 57.72 4.78 25.90 0.00 5.15 LAB LAB
35 510 Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Gordon Brown 71,606 58.37 7.16 58.36 5.18 24.82 0.00 4.47 LAB LAB
37 508 Rutherglen and Hamilton West Tommy McAvoy 73,998 58.46 5.81 55.94 7.30 26.69 0.00 4.25 LAB LAB
47 498 Dunbartonshire West John McFall 67,805 61.34 4.47 52.20 5.73 31.75 0.00 5.84 LAB LAB
50 495 Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Rosemary McKenna 64,748 60.37 4.83 52.09 5.92 32.63 0.00 4.54 LAB LAB
51 494 Glenrothes John MacDougall 66,563 56.14 4.93 52.15 5.03 32.55 0.00 5.34 LAB LAB
52 493 Paisley and Renfrewshire South Douglas Alexander 60,181 62.91 5.85 52.90 7.01 29.94 0.00 4.30 LAB LAB
75 470 Livingston Robin Cook 76,353 58.07 7.05 51.41 6.13 33.18 0.00 2.24 LAB LAB
77 468 Falkirk Eric Joyce 76,784 59.58 6.89 51.17 6.36 33.28 0.00 2.30 LAB LAB
78 467 Glasgow Central Mohammad Sarwar 64,053 43.77 4.35 48.53 7.07 26.64 4.89 8.51 LAB LAB
81 464 Inverclyde David Cairns 59,291 60.88 7.10 51.08 6.74 32.07 0.00 3.00 LAB LAB
92 453 Glasgow North West John Robertson 61,880 55.04 6.65 49.54 7.77 27.51 0.00 8.53 LAB LAB
94 451 East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Adam Ingram 75,132 63.53 6.95 49.06 6.58 30.12 0.00 7.29 LAB LAB
104 441 Dunfermline and West Fife Rachel Squire 70,775 59.90 7.17 47.82 8.02 33.28 0.00 3.71 LAB LAB
110 435 Linlithgow and East Falkirk Michael Connarty 76,739 60.45 8.22 48.01 6.09 35.57 0.00 2.12 LAB LAB
111 434 Kilmarnock and Loudoun Des Browne 72,851 60.92 7.87 47.51 4.43 37.19 0.00 3.00 LAB LAB
112 433 Midlothian David Hamilton 60,644 62.17 6.52 45.96 10.43 34.48 0.00 2.62 LAB LAB
115 430 Dundee West James McGovern 65,857 56.09 5.76 44.86 5.73 40.54 0.00 3.11 LAB LAB
117 428 Glasgow South Tom Harris 68,837 55.83 8.74 47.62 7.57 27.02 0.00 9.05 LAB LAB
125 420 Lanark and Hamilton East Jimmy Hood 73,736 59.11 8.89 46.43 7.41 31.97 0.00 5.31 LAB LAB
131 414 Paisley and Renfrewshire North James Sheridan 63,076 64.82 9.46 46.11 7.26 33.04 0.00 4.14 LAB LAB
133 412 Aberdeen North Frank Doran 65,714 55.75 6.55 42.90 9.51 38.51 0.00 2.53 LAB LAB
146 398 Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil 21,576 59.27 3.31 37.48 3.41 54.79 0.00 1.00 NAT NAT
150 395 Glasgow North Ann McKechin 55,419 50.38 6.07 39.88 10.91 30.96 7.65 4.53 LAB LAB
155 390 Edinburgh East Gavin Strang 64,826 61.25 7.16 40.48 9.71 33.78 0.00 8.87 LAB LAB
168 377 Ayrshire North and Arran Katy Clark 73,737 59.95 12.76 44.31 6.53 32.51 0.00 3.89 LAB LAB
169 376 Ayrshire Central Brian Donohoe 68,643 62.46 15.36 46.84 6.38 27.00 0.00 4.42 LAB LAB
178 367 East Lothian Anne Picking 70,989 64.48 11.10 41.96 9.87 31.70 0.00 5.36 LAB LAB
194 351 Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Sandra Osborne 73,448 61.33 16.09 45.75 5.60 27.76 0.00 4.81 LAB LAB
213 331 Dundee East Stewart Hosie 63,335 62.43 8.89 36.50 4.52 47.29 0.00 2.80 NAT NAT
233 312 Aberdeen South Anne Begg 67,012 62.11 11.91 37.33 13.30 33.71 0.00 3.75 LAB LAB
242 302 Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Danny Alexander 69,636 63.55 7.19 31.60 16.02 39.27 0.00 5.92 LIB NAT
244 301 Edinburgh South West Alistair Darling 67,135 65.43 16.18 40.28 8.37 29.17 0.00 5.99 LAB LAB
254 291 Renfrewshire East Jim Murphy 65,714 72.14 20.75 44.41 7.26 25.72 0.00 1.86 LAB LAB
264 280 Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson 64,763 72.15 11.46 33.87 16.62 34.16 0.00 3.89 LIB NAT
269 276 Edinburgh North and Leith Mark Lazarowicz 68,038 62.67 12.98 34.81 11.60 32.03 0.00 8.57 LAB LAB
300 245 Stirling Anne McGuire 64,554 67.68 17.43 36.50 8.24 31.49 0.00 6.34 LAB LAB
319 226 Edinburgh South Nigel Griffiths 60,993 70.00 16.74 33.90 12.83 31.32 0.00 5.21 LAB LAB
321 224 Dumfries and Galloway Russell Brown 74,273 68.52 24.57 41.51 3.33 27.01 0.00 3.58 LAB LAB
321 223 Ochil and South Perthshire Gordon Banks 70,731 66.02 14.91 31.72 5.29 43.56 0.00 4.51 LAB NAT
335 209 Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross John Thurso 46,837 59.06 7.12 21.76 20.06 44.77 0.00 6.29 LIB NAT
378 166 Ross Skye and Lochaber Charles Kennedy 50,507 64.42 6.99 15.87 23.34 45.64 0.00 8.16 LIB NAT
378 166 Gordon Malcolm Bruce 71,925 61.78 12.26 21.02 17.90 46.47 0.00 2.35 LIB NAT
384 161 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell 66,045 67.55 25.13 32.86 8.06 30.95 0.00 2.99 CON LAB
385 159 Argyll and Bute Alan Reid 67,325 64.21 16.31 23.16 14.52 42.90 0.00 3.12 LIB NAT
386 158 Edinburgh West John Barrett 65,741 68.85 13.53 19.52 19.69 42.68 0.00 4.58 LIB NAT
386 158 Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael 33,048 53.69 9.23 15.03 20.48 43.24 5.59 6.43 LIB NAT
387 157 Moray Angus Robertson 66,463 58.37 15.26 20.87 7.65 53.75 0.00 2.48 NAT NAT
405 139 Fife North East Sir Menzies Campbell 62,057 62.13 13.54 13.69 20.71 45.43 0.00 6.62 LIB NAT
410 134 Banff and Buchan Alex Salmond 65,570 56.76 13.45 12.37 5.29 64.24 0.00 4.65 NAT NAT
415 129 Perth and North Perthshire Peter Wishart 70,895 64.79 21.10 19.20 6.41 51.49 0.00 1.81 NAT NAT
415 129 Angus Michael Weir 63,093 60.48 20.48 18.44 6.94 51.96 0.00 2.18 NAT NAT
428 116 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Michael Moore 71,702 63.30 20.04 16.72 16.64 40.47 0.00 6.13 LIB NAT
445 99 Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Sir Robert Smith 65,548 63.54 19.71 14.04 18.41 45.58 0.00 2.26 LIB NAT

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