Amsterdam, London, New York, Shanghai?

Comments

6 responses to “Amsterdam, London, New York, Shanghai?”

1. 

   Alex

   March 1, 2007

   Superficially attractive, but nix, I think. It’s a well-understood notion in systems analysis that a peripheral but high-leverage node can have disproportionate effects on the network. Stewart Brand talks about buildings as a collection of layers that change at different speeds, a “shearing process”, with the important consequence that sometimes, the fast-moving but lightweight top layer can trigger structural changes. Similarly, John Gallagher and Ronald Robinson’s analysis of British imperial history was based on the notion that a peripheral crisis that hit particular nerves could entrain the centre into acting.
   Arguably, the centre is moving back to London, certainly if you listen to the mayor of New York and the chairman of the NYSE. Now, seeing as this week’s crash was profoundly affected by the Dow Jones index’s crappy IT, that don’t sound so crazy..

   Reply
2. 

   Tom Griffin

   March 1, 2007

   It is interesting that part of the reason for the shifting balance between London and New York is apparently because the US is now harder to get into.
   The previous cities in the sequence have all been liberal powers, a pattern which Shanghai obviously doesn’t fit.
   indeed, It’s not really clear where Asia fits in as a whole.
   The succession of financial centres that Braudel identified, including also Genoa, Antwerp and Venice, is really focussed on the European-Atlantic economy.
   Other historians who argue for a single world-economy with Asia at its centre up to as late as 1800 (e.g. Andre Gunder Frank) haven’t identified a similar sequence.

   Reply
3. 

   Alex

   March 1, 2007

   Perhaps, in a sense, Shanghai *is* a liberal power, taken in its historic context? At least it is for stockbrokers.
   Anyway, “Andre Gunder Frank” is one of the trigger phrases for my intellectual spam filter.

   Reply
4. 

   Tom Griffin

   March 1, 2007

   That seems to be the way the stockbrokers are betting but London, New York and Amsterdam tended to be relatively safe havens for money and ideas. I suppose Shanghai will fall down on that score until China becomes a net importer of refugee intellectuals.
   Gunder Frank’s ideas on the Asian World economy owe a lot to less controversial thinkers like Janet Abu-Lughod.
   There s a good precis of his argument here:
   http://www.rrojasdatabank.org/agfrank/braudel.html

   Reply
5. 

   Alexander

   March 2, 2007

   In this connection, this work is highly recommended.

   Reply
6. 

   Tom Griffin

   March 3, 2007

   Thanks for the tip, Alexander. I have yet to read any of Arrighi’s work, but i have been meaning to for a while.

   Reply