A quick look at the numbers for a parliamentary move to block no deal, expected tomorrow. My conclusion is that if Tory rebels turn out in the numbers anticipated, the Government will need a substantial Labour rebellion to stave off defeat. The situation is fluid, but there doesn't seem to be much sign of that so far. It's no wonder that the Government is resorting to threats of deselections and an early election.
The figures below are very much a guesstimate, but they give an idea of the factors in play.
Against legislation
294 Cons
311 Conservative MPs minus 1 deputy speaker and 16 rebels.
Keith Simpson, reported by the Guardian as a potential rebel, now says he will vote with the Government.
Caroline Spelman has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. She has told Buzzfeed she is not voting against the Government. (This language might not rule out an abstention).
Sarah Newton has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. She has told Buzzfeed she is not voting against the Government.
Alan Duncan told Buzzfeed he will vote with the Government.
10 DUP
2 Independents
Unlikely to be more than a handful as the majority are breaking for the opposition.
Charlie Elphicke is opposed to an Article 50 extension.
Kate Hoey has condemned the anti-no deal legislation.
1 Labour rebel
Perhaps the most uncertain factor but unlikely to be high.
John Mann may vote for the Government, according to Left Foot Forward.
307 current provisional total
For legislation
245 Lab
247 Labour MPs minus 2 deputy speakers and an unknown number of Labour rebels.
35 SNP
14 Lib Dem
Jo Swinson has signed the Church House declaration for the Lib Dems.
5 Ind Group4Change
4 Plaid Cymru
1 Green Party
Caroline Lucas has signed the Church House Declaration.
7 Independents
Heidi Allen has signed the Church House Declaration.
Luciana Berger has signed the Church House Declaration.
Nick Boles has signed the Church House Declaration.
Stephen Lloyd has signed the Church House Declaration.
Gavin Shuker has signed the Church House Declaration.
Angela Smith has signed the Church House Declaration.
John Woodcock has signed the Church House Declaration.
16 Conservative rebels
Guto Bebb has signed the Church House Declaration.
Justine Greening has signed the Church House Declaration. She has told Buzzfeed she will vote against the Government.
David Gauke has called for Parliament to stop a No Deal Brexit, and has told Buzzfeed he will vote against the Government.
Philip Hammond was reported as a rebel by ITV News. Key supporter of the anti-no deal bill.
Greg Clarke has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. Guardian's Jessica Elgot says he will vote against the Government.
Ken Clarke has been reported as a rebel by ITV News.
Antoinette Sandbach has said she will try to block No Deal. She has told Buzzfeed she will vote against the Government.
Rory Stewart has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. He has told Buzzfeed he will vote against the Government.
Dominic Grieve has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. Involved in drafting the anti-no deal bill.
Oliver Letwin has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. Involved in drafting the anti-no deal bill.
Philip Lee has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. His name is on the anti-no deal motion. Update: He has joined the Lib Dems.
Sam Gyimah has told Buzzfeed he will vote against the Government.
Richard Harrington has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. He has told Buzzfeed he is 'currently voting against the Government.'
Alistair Burt has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. He has told Buzzfeed he will vote against the Government.
Margot James has told Buzzfeed she will vote against the Government.
Caroline Nokes has told the BBC 'my constituents mean a whole lot more to me than keeping the Conservative whip'
327 current provisional total
Non-voting
7 Sinn Féin
4 Speaker and deputy speakers
Uncertain
Independents
Ian Austin – tweeted a distinctly unsympathetic response to Keir Starmer's call for parliamentary action to stop no deal.
Lady Hermon
Kelvin Hopkins
Ivan Lewis is concerned about No Deal but wants the EU to re-open negotiations.
Jared O'Mara is expected to resign imminently.
Frank Field is opposed to crashing out.
Chris Williamson – likely to vote with Labour.
Other potential Tory rebels
Jonathan Djanogly listed as an unconfirmed potential rebel by the Guardian.
Anne Milton is listed as as a rebel by ITV News, but was later reported by the Guardian to have not made a final decision.
Nick Soames has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. Has said he will vote against the Government without further assurances on a deal.
David Lidington has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. He has told Buzzfeed he is undecided.
Ed Vaizey has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. He has told Buzzfeed he is undecided.
Steve Brine has been reported as a rebel by ITV News. He has told Buzzfeed he is undecided.
Steven Hammond has not responded to Buzzfeed's attempt to contact him.
Paul Masterton has been listed as a potential rebel by the BBC.
Leave a Reply