Irish election: Exit poll

Counting gets underway later this morning, but RTE’s exit poll offers an early indication of the way things are going.

The RTE survey — providing the first hard figures from Thursday’s
national election for the Dail Eireann parliament — put Fianna Fail on
41.6 percent while its major opposition rival, Fine Gael, was on 26.3
percent.

The left-wing Labour Party, which could end up holding the balance
of power and has a formal alliance with Fine Gael, was on 9.9 percent.
Fianna Fail’s longstanding partner in coalition government, the
Progressive Democrats, had 2.6 percent. The Greens had 4.8 percent,
Sinn Fein 7.3 percent and independents 7.5 percent. (International Herald Tribune)

On these figures it looks like Fianna Fail are best placed to return to Government. However, a margin of error of 2.5 per cent leaves a lot scope for uncertainty about the fate of the smaller parties, notably the PDs, who could provide a coalition partner. A lot will turn on transfers.

For more coverage, check out these sites:

RTE election page
Politics.ie
Irish Election.com
Slugger O’Toole