SNP election scorecard

Here, as promised, is my list of the key seats for the SNP. The situation in Scotland is complicated because of extensive boundary changes which have reduced the number of seats from 72 to 59.

Today’s Daily Record suggests the SNP has set six seats as a target, one more than their current total. Given that the boundary changes have effectively cost the party one seat, that would be a good result.

For better informed, if not completely disinterested, commentary on the seats here, check out Stuart Dickson’s Independence blog.

Notional SNP seats

Banff and Buchan – SNP leader Alex Salmond’s 10,000 majority should one of the safest bets of the night.

Perth and North Perthshire – Although named after the constituency held last time by the SNP’s Annabelle Ewing, the new boundaries encompass large parts of the North Tayside seat held by colleague Pete Wishart. It is former Runrig member Wishart who is contesting the seat, and with a notional majority estimated at some 4,000 to 5,000, he should be safe enough.

Moray – The SNP’s Angus Robertson is defending a notional 2,000 majority in this seat, which has seen only minor boundary changes. He should get back in but could be vulnerable to Labour on a bad night.

Angus – Michael Weir MP is defending the SNP’s most marginal seat, formed from parts of the old Angus and North Tayside seats, against a strong Tory challenge.

SNP Targets

Ochil & South Perthshire – Sitting Perth MP Annabelle Ewing was the biggest SNP loser from the boundary changes. Her new constituency has a notional Labour majority on paper, but may be too close to call in reality.

Dundee East – The SNP believe Stewart Hosie can overturn a notional Labour majority which is in the hundreds here.

Dumfries and Galloway – Although this seat is next on the SNP target list, the party actually starts in third place here, and Labour may be more vulnerable to a Tory resurgence.

Na h-Eileanan An Iar – The SNP start in second place to Labour in an unchanged Western Isles constituency, but need an 8 per cent swing to take the seat.

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey – The SNP need a 9.2 per cent swing to win here, another seat where they start in third place, this time behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats,