It’s clear that with a reduced majority of 66 the Labour Government will be much more vulnerable to rebellions, unless its MPs exercise more discipline than they did in the last Parliament.
34 Labour rebels would be enought to overturn the Government’s majority. I’ve come up with a list of the most likely candidates, by comparing the Public Whip’s table of rebels in the last Parliament with the list of re-elected MPs. (There are a still a few undeclared seats on this list but the broad trend is fairly clear.)
Tony Blair will be delighted to know that his majority depends upon Leyton and Wanstead MP Harry Cohen.
An interesting feature of the list is that all but four of the 40 most rebellious Labour MPs sit for English constituencies.
This is potentially significant as figures from the Campaign for an English Parliament indicate Labour has an English majority of 44. It would take only 23 English MPs to rebel on a devolved issues to create a controversy similar to those around tuition fees and foundation hospitals in the last Parliament.
1 Jeremy Corbyn Islington North
2 John McDonnell Hayes and Harlington
3 Kate Hoey Vauxhall
4 Robert Marshall-Andrews Medway
5 Gwyneth Dunwoody Crewe and Nantwich
6 Alan Simpson Nottingham South
7 Lynne Jones Birmingham Selly Oak
8 Diane Abbott Hackney North and Stoke Newington
9 Robert Wareing Liverpool, West Derby
10 Mark Fisher Stoke on Trent Central
11 Kelvin Hopkins Luton North
12 Dennis Skinner Bolsover
13 Clare Short Birmingham Ladywood
14 Glenda Jackson Hampstead and Highgate
15 Mike Wood Batley and Spen
16 Neil Gerrard Walthamstow
17 Frank Field Birkenhead
18 David Taylor North West Leicestershire
19 Andrew MacKinlay Thurrock
20 Gordon Prentice Pendle
21 David Drew Stroud
22 Ian Gibson Norwich North
23 Bill Etherington Sunderland North
Etherington is the 23rd most rebellious English Labour MP. If he and all the others vote against the Government, it loses its English majority.
24 Michael Connarty Linlithgow and East Falkirk (Scottish Constituency)
25 Jim Cousins Newcastle Upon Tyne Central
26 Peter Kilfoyle Liverpool Walton
27 Paul Flynn Newport West (Welsh Constituency)
28 Austin Mitchell Great Grimsby
29 Jim Dobbin Heywood and Middleton
30 John Austin Erith and Thamesmead
31 Michael Clapham Barnsley West and Penistone
32 Ian Davidson Glasgow Southwest (Scottish Constituency)
33 David Hamilton Midlothian (Scottish Constituency)
34 Harry Cohen Leyton and Wanstead
Cohen is the 34th most rebellious Labour MP. If he and all the others vote against the Government, it loses its overall majority.
35 Andrew Dismore Hendon
36 George Mudie Leeds East
37 Chris McCafferty Calder Valley
38 Geraldine Smith Morecambe and Lunesdale
39 Frank Cook Stockton North
40 Brian Iddon Bolton South East