Will Gordon leave conference waiting at the Church?

Martin Kettle may be right that there’s no real reason of principle why Britain needs an early election, but Gordon Brown’s failure to dampen speculation means we may be reaching the point where he can’t back out without the Jim Callaghan comparisons becoming inescapable.

One suggestion is that Brown is trying to keep the Tories off-balance. That of course is exactly what Callaghan was up to.

Given the Labour poll lead and the uncertain economic outlook, there may well be a partisan case for going to the country.

The SNP’s new-found strength in Scotland would be a complicating factor although there aren’t that many Labour-SNP marginals.

In Irish terms, Westminster elections often come at inconvenient times,
and an autumn poll would be no exception. The major stumbling blocks
facing the new executive are unlikely to be resolved in the midst of a
campaign.

There are some tentative realignments emerging in the North at the
moment, both on the unionist and nationalist sides. One wonders whether
an early election would accelerate or retard that process. Would Fine Gael or Labour be crossing the border to support the SDLP?

There are plenty of Irish-themed events on the Labour conference fringe, where I am sure those points will come up for discussion. If you are in Bournemouth this year, don’t forget to check out Slugger’s event at the Moon on the Square pub at 7pm on Tuesday.