NI election spread

Politicalbetting.com has some spread-betting figures from IG Index for the UK general election in Northern Ireland:

DUP 8-8.5: SF 5.5-6: UUP 2.5-3: SDLP 1-1.5

This would suggest the SDLP losing at least one and maybe two seats to Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionists losing two or three seats to the DUP.

I underestimated the growth of the DUP and SF in 2001, in my entry to the predictions contest at the excellent Northern Ireland elections website. This time I’m inclined to think that they may do even better than the spread predicts.

By the way the equivalent range for the parties in Britain are as follows:

LAB 358-365 (-1): CON 183-190 (nc) : LD 71-75 (+1) : SNP 5.75-6.25: PC 3.75-4.25: RES 0.5-1: UKIP 0.1-0.6