Plaid Cymru election scorecard

It’ll be interesting to see on Thursday night whether the Scottish and Welsh nationalists can improve on their decidedly mixed performance in 2001.

With that in mind, I’ve compiled a list of the key seats for each party, starting with Plaid Cymru.

Current Plaid Cymru seats

Meirionnydd Nant Conwy – The party’s safest seat. Although this is Labour’s third target in Wales, it would take a 13.5 per cent swing to defeat Plaid’s Westminster leader Elfyn Llywd.

Caernarfon – Labour’s second target in Wales, but this is another seat in Plaid’s North Wales heartland and should be a reasonably safe hold for Hywel Williams.

Ceredigion – A former Lib Dem seat, and the Lib Dems second target in Wales. A definite marginal which should nevertheless return Simon Thomas.

Carmarthen East & Dinefwr – Plaid’s most vulnerable seat and Labour’s top target in Wales. This doesn’t look like the election for Labour gains though, and Adam Price should be returned once again. if he isn’t it will be a bad night for Plaid Cymru.

Plaid Cymru targets

Ynys Mon – Regaining Ynys Mon is all-important for Plaid Cymru. Their gain in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr in 2001 was cancelled out by defeat in this former stronghold. With Labour sitting on a bare 800 majority, a reversal should not be beyond Plaid, although the presence of independent former Assembly Member Peter Rogers could be a wild card in the race.

Llanelli – Plaid captured an Assembly seat here in 1999, which returned to Labour in 2003. The number two Plaid target is in reality a safe Labour seat with the nationalists needing a swing of almost 9 per cent.  Nevertheless, inroads into Labour’s majority here would be an important indicator of Plaid’s health as a nationwide force.